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TDG #1 - Executive
Decision (Military Coup in 2009 Thailand) |
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It's 1:30 AM, and
you've just arrived at the White House Situation Room. (The President
of the United States is at a conference in Malta, and you're in
charge!) A coup attempt is taking place in Thailand. In 2005,
the U.S. had entered into a five-year agreement to lease a port and
airstrip for the use of U.S. military forces. In the ensuing years,
the bases quickly became integral to U.S. military efforts in Asia.
The strategic location enabled the U.S. to keep close watch on China,
North Korea, Indonesia, and other hotspots in the region. By December
1st, 2009, the air base and the naval base had become two of the
biggest U.S. military bases in the world. The U.S. hopes to renew the
lease for twenty years after the current five-year lease expires.
An aide hands you
the phone. It's the president of Thailand. She had come to power in
2007 and quickly brought democratic reforms to the nation. As a result
of this democratization, Thailand had garnered good relations with the
U.S., and if it were up to her, she would ratify the twenty-year lease
extension. However, it isn't up to her, but the Thai Senate. In three
months the senate will be voting for or against the lease extension, and it
isn't looking good for the U.S. Fifteen senators are against the
extension, while only nine are for it. Publicly, the U.S. is supporting
Thailand's current government, but the U.S. wants to keep the bases
too!
Secretly, the
U.S. has been preparing the U.S. friendly Thai military forces for a coup.
The plan is for Thai Special Forces to conduct the coup and install a
U.S. friendly military commander who would then renew the leases. (For
decades, the U.S. and Thai military have conducted annual joint
military exercises code-named Cobra Gold. But this year's exercises
were different. Thai Special Forces, including the Thai Royal Marines
and the Thai Rangers, had received specialized and intensive training
in demolitions, small arms weapons, and related training from a Marine
Expeditionary Unit.)
The President of
Thailand gives you the news, and it's not good. Thai Special forces
(now rebels) have taken control over large parts of Bangkok, and are
advancing on the Presidential Palace. She reports that her loyalist
forces can't hold out much longer without U.S. help. Specifically,
she requests U.S. jets to strafe the rebels approaching her palace.
(Her own air force has decided to sit this one out.) You have the
Ronald Reagan Carrier Battle Group standing by off the coast of
Thailand, having been summoned off of shore leave in Pattaya Beach,
Thailand. What do you do? Do you order jets to strafe Thai troops
specifically trained by the U.S. to conduct the coup? Or do you deny
the use of U.S. military forces under the premise of not interfering
in the internal affairs of a foreign country? Or do you do something
else?
The future of
U.S. credibility and strategic power in Asia rests in your hands. You
tell the Thai president that you'll call her back in fifteen minutes
with your decision. What is your executive decision?
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Solution(s):
There are no easy solutions to this TDG, as a similar incident in
the Philippines illustrates. In December 1989, Philippine Special
Forces attempted a coup in the country. Vice President Dan Quayle, who
was subbing for President George Bush who was away on business,
ordered U.S. warplanes to fly a "cap" over Manilla at the request of
Philippine President Cory Aquino. F-4s, flying from Clark Air Base,
effectively ended the coup, killing a number of U.S. trained "rebels" and killing
chances for continued U.S. presence at Subic and Clark. It's not clear
if the U.S. had any involvement in the coup. Dan Quayle, in his book
Standing Firm, wrote that it was "a great moment for me personally. We
saved democracy without firing a shot." |
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